A review by the SUN DAY Campaign of data just released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reveals that the mix of renewable energy sources (i.e., biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, wind) is now nearly 30% of total U.S. electrical generating capacity. Moreover, for the ninth month in a row, solar was the largest source of new capacity and is on track to become the nation’s second-largest source of capacity — behind only natural gas — within three years.
Renewables were 94% of new generating capacity in May and 90% YTD:
In its latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” (with data through May 31, 2024), FERC says 50 “units” of solar totaling 2,517 MW were placed into service in May along with two units each of wind (277 MW) and hydropower (211 MW). Combined they accounted for 94.23% of all new generating capacity added during the month. Natural gas provided the balance — 184-MW.
For the first five months of 2024, solar and wind added 10,669-MW and 2,095-MW respectively. Combined with 212 MW of hydropower and 3 MW of biomass, renewables year-to-date (YTD) were 89.91% of capacity added. The balance consisted of the 1,100 Vogtle-4 nuclear reactor in Georgia plus 348 MW of gas, 5 MW of oil and 3 MW of “other.”
Solar was 74% of new capacity in the first five months of 2024:
The new solar capacity added from January through May this year was more than double the solar capacity (4,885 MW) added during the same period last year. YTD, solar accounted for 73.91% of all new generation placed into service in the first five months of 2024.
New wind capacity YTD accounted for most of the balance — 14.51%, but that was slightly less than that added during the same time frame in 2023 (2,760 MW).
In May alone, solar comprised 78.93% of all new capacity added, followed by wind (8.69%).
Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity for nine months straight: September 2023 – May 2024. For seven of those nine months, wind took second place.
Solar plus wind are now more than a fifth of U.S. generating capacity:
The combined capacities of just solar and wind now constitute more than one-fifth (20.55%) of the nation’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity.
However, a third or more of U.S. solar capacity is in the form of small-scale (e.g., rooftop) systems that is not reflected in FERC’s data. Including that additional solar capacity would bring the share provided by solar + wind closer to a quarter of the nation’s total.
Solar’s share of U.S. generating capacity puts it in fourth place:
The latest capacity additions have brought solar’s share of total available installed utility-scale (i.e., >1-MW) generating capacity up to 8.78%, further expanding its lead over hydropower (7.83%). Wind is currently at 11.77%. With the inclusion of biomass (1.12%) and geothermal (0.32%), renewables now claim a 29.82% share of total U.S. utility-scale generating capacity.
Installed utility-scale solar has now moved into fourth place — behind natural gas (43.38%), coal (15.79%) and wind — for its share of generating capacity after having recently surpassed that of nuclear power (8.05%).
Solar is on track to become the second largest source of generating capacity:
FERC reports that net “high probability” additions of solar between June 2024 and May 2027 total 89,852-MW – an amount almost four times the forecast net “high probability” additions for wind (23,449-MW), the second fastest growing resource.
FERC also foresees growth for hydropower (558-MW), geothermal (400-MW), and biomass (94-MW). On the other hand, there is no new nuclear capacity in FERC’s three-year forecast while coal, natural gas, and oil are projected to contract by 18,386-MW, 2,785-MW, and 1,269-MW respectively.
If FERC’s current “high probability” additions materialize, by June 1, 2027, solar will account for more than one-seventh (14.65%) of the nation’s installed utility-scale generating capacity. That would be greater than either coal (13.42%) or wind (12.68%) and substantially more than either nuclear power (7.52%) or hydropower (7.36%). The installed capacity of utility-scale solar would thus rise to second place – behind only natural gas.
Meanwhile, the mix of all renewables would account for 36.10% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity – rapidly approaching that of natural gas (40.30%) – with solar and wind constituting more than three-quarters of the installed renewable energy capacity.
The combined capacities of all renewables could exceed natural gas within three years:
As noted, FERC’s data do not account for the capacity of small-scale solar systems. If that is factored in, within three years, total U.S. solar capacity (i.e., small-scale plus utility-scale) would likely approach — and possibly surpass — 300 GW. In turn, the mix of all renewables would then exceed 40% of total installed capacity while natural gas’ share would drop to about 37%.
Moreover, FERC reports that there may actually be as much as 211,968 MW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 70,433 MW of new wind and 7,646 MW of new hydropower. Thus, renewables’ share could be even greater by late-spring 2027.
“Step-by-step, installed solar capacity is surpassing all other energy sources,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “It has now advanced to fourth place and should be in second within a few years, with wind not far behind.”
News item from the Sun Day Campaign
