Raghu Belur, co-founder and chief product officer at Enphase Energy, a microinverter and energy storage company, expect demand for energy to continue its upward trajectory. “Demand for energy will continue to accelerate due to electrification, driven by electric vehicles, heat pumps, data centers, and much more,” Belur said. “Renewables will be the most cost-effective and scalable solution to meet this demand, especially as other energy sources remain costly or slow to deploy.”
VPP policy and regulations
Ken Schisler, senior vice president of law & policy at CPower, a distributed energy resource monetization and virtual power plant (VPP) provider, believes that if grid operators don’t fix their problems, politicians will and they’re paying attention. “We saw it in the past in Texas when the leaders of its grid operator, its board members and the commissioners of the state’s regulatory board all resigned after widespread power outages during Winter Storm Uri a few years ago,” Schisler said. “Now, governors of several states in PJM have called upon the grid operator to help cut costs because they worry about soaring prices impacting consumers. Meanwhile, across the country, the governor of California has signed an executive order to curb rising costs for consumers there, like by trimming state programs that could be inflating electricity bills. When prices get out of control, politicians will do something to change it up.”
Rooftop solar and prospecting improve
Piers Dormeyer, CEO of Eagleview, provider of aerial imagery in the U.S., expects to see further consolidation of the solar market within the roofing industry, which will make it easier for customers to add solar solutions to their homes. “The softness in the solar market in 2024 led many quality solar companies to create roofing divisions. Now, the roofing industry has had strong back-to-back years from the impact of weather. With legal and policy changes from the insurance carriers, 2025 will be the year that the roofing companies will significantly expand their offerings into solar.”
Furthermore, the Eagleview exec predicts that prospecting, qualifying and estimating will become a more exact science. “The improvements technology will make in improving who solar companies prospect to, their ability to qualify customers from their office and desktop followed by creating accurate instantaneous estimates will launch those that utilize it several levels above their competition.”
IRA will prevail; shakeout on the way
Lie Shi, CEO of AM Batteries, a dry battery electrode specialist, sees the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) enduring, despite uncertainty. “First, they are legislatively challenging to dismantle. And second, 75% of the grants have been allocated to Republican districts, with 50% awarded in swing states, ensuring—if somewhat tenuous—bipartisan support.”
Shi predicts that “Made in America” will become a major theme in the cleantech space, as the new administration has stated that it plans to build walls that attract investment in the United States. He stated that he also expects a shakeout in the cleantech sector. “Only the strongest players with true technical differentiation will survive, while those who jumped on the bandwagon without a clear competitive edge will be pushed out in 2025.”
Community solar growth
Vihann Kong, senior executive director of Ampion, a community solar subscription management company, expects that more states, such as Pennsylvania and Ohio, will pass community solar legislation. One of the drivers behind this growth, Kong believes, is corporate demand. While corporations are responsible for the rising cost of electricity and driving demand, such as with data centers, “we’re seeing Fortune 500 companies like Walmart increasing their energy 5x per store over the next decade, and Wendy’s subscribing their stores to community solar.” He also noted that electrification of the grid is going to disproportionately affect low- to middle-income ratepayers (LMI), and therefore corporations with LMI customers are increasingly investing in solar. “They want to find solutions beforehand so that their LMI customers are not impacted.”
Market consolidation
JD Dillon, chief marketing officer at Tigo Energy, a solar component and software provider, sees 2025 as a year when growth in the solar industry will be greater than expected. However, similar to the prediction by AM Batteries Shi, Dillon believes there will be a consolidation as “more companies will cease to exist up and down the supply chain, through M&A, bankruptcy, or exiting the market.” He said this is “natural and healthy for the industry, although painful for all involved.” High-quality companies will benefit, he said, adding that “quality is a term that applies equally to the physical solution, software component, financial stability, operational capabilities, and selling practices.”
Explosive manufacturing growth
Alex Zhu, founder and CEO of ES Foundry, a South Carolina-based startup that plans to produce both solar cells and modules, believes the U.S. will see explosive growth in solar manufacturing due to the domestic content bonus in the Inflation Reduction Act.
“While there have been module-level manufacturing announcements, many companies still depend on foreign manufacturers for the solar cell,” Zhu said. He sees 2025 as a turning point, however. “2025 is the year when the American people will really begin to see the benefits of federal and state-level investments in the solar industry, and I can’t wait.”
