From pv magazine Global
Xeneta, a Norwegian ocean and freight rate benchmarking platform, has warned that container shipping spot rates could rise due to Donald Trump’s recent re-election as the next U.S. president.
“Trump has vowed blanket tariffs of up to 20% on all imports into the US and additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods from China,” the company said in a statement. “Data from Xeneta – the ocean and air freight intelligence platform – shows the last time Trump ramped up tariffs on Chinese imports during the trade war in 2018, ocean container shipping freight rates spiked more than 70%.”
Xeneta said that businesses are rushing imports to avoid higher tariffs, as U.S. importers and exporters brace for rising ocean container shipping rates. The company notes that a repeat of 2018 is unlikely, with frontloading of imports expected to play a larger role this time.
“Risk management has been a huge element to handle for container shipping supply chain professionals in recent months,” the company’s chief analyst, Peter Sand, told pv magazine. “At first there was the U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports strike and one month later the U.S. presidential election. As the uncertainty around the results of the election was quickly out of the way, the focus can now turn to executing the contingency plans made for how to handle the transition from the current tariff regime to the next one.”
Sand explained that U.S. retailers have spent the year building inventories in response to disruptions in the Red Sea, leaving importers in a position to act strategically. He noted that there is little indication of a significant surge in activity at this stage.
“Spot container shipping freight rates into the U.S. from Far East/China in particular have gone up $150 per [40-foot equivalent unit] into the East Coast, whereas rates into the West Coast have been sliding by the same amount in the past three months,” he added.
Shipping costs grew considerably in the first half of 2024 due to the Red Sea crisis.
“There is an upward trend connected to the frontloading and potential port strike on U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports,” said Sand.
Xeneta warned that tariffs imposed by other nations and trading blocs, including the European Union, could drive prices higher.
“It is important to monitor ocean container shipping data on backhaul trades because these could also be impacted if a trade war with the U.S. escalates at a more widespread global level,” the company said. “An escalating trade war could see some shippers shift supply chains and import goods into the U.S. on other trade lanes. Firstly, they may open factories in other countries in the Far East, but this takes time and comes at a cost.”
