Meeting the proposed operational deadline coupled with permitting delays and supply chain challenges means developers would have to rush to start and finish projects in 3.5 years. Cleanview quantifies the enormous amount of clean energy capacity at risk.
After the House passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” in May, the Solar Energy Industries Association released the report, America’s solar industry is under threat that found the bill could jeopardize the buildout of domestic manufacturing and lead to the loss of planned solar projects.
Cleanview, a clean energy market intelligence company based in Boulder, Colorado corroborates this in its report, Repealing the IRA puts 600 GW of clean energy capacity at risk.
An earlier iteration of the bill presented by the House Ways and Means Committee proposed a gradual step-down in tax credits, but the House bill, which is now with the Senate for possible changes and a vote, has a much more stringent process for qualifying for tax credits. For example, in order for developers to qualify for 45Y Production Tax Credit and 48E Investment Tax, construction must begin within 60 days of the President signing the bill into law and the projects must be placed into service by the end of 2028.
In addition, rules around foreign entities of concern (FEOC) would deny tax credits to owners of projects that use materials and equipment from companies in China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.
Cleanview commented on the fact that a project will lose its credit entirely if it is not operational by the end of 2028, stating that it creates “much more risk for a project developer who has little control over whether a local county issues their permit or if a 100-year pandemic wreaks havoc on global supply chains.”
While projects may be planned and ready for development, American Clean Power finds that clean energy projects experience delays in permitting or supply chain issues of 16 months. With supply chain problems at risk of getting worse due to recent tariffs, “these compressed timeframes put a huge portion of planned utility-scale solar, wind and battery projects at risk,” according to Cleanview. “Developers will essentially have to rush to begin work within a two-month window and achieve completion within ~3.5 years.”
Cleanview estimates that 223 GW of solar projects are at risk.
At greatest risk
Storage projects face the highest risk with 265 GW of capacity planned for 2028 and beyond, according to the report. Cleanview finds that 136K of storage is planned to come online in 2028, with 127K expected to come online after 2028.
Energy storage faces high risk in part due to its incredible success. “In recent years, developers have planned hundreds of gigawatts of storage capacity, thanks to falling costs and the IRA’s unprecedented policy support,” Michael Thomas, Cleanview founder and CEO told pv magazine USA. “That’s led it to be disproportionately represented in the interconnection queues.”
In states with notoriously slow permitting timelines, like California, projects face an even higher risk. Cleanview projects that 183 GW (or 79%) of projects in California’s CAISO face the highest risk.
Texas’ ERCOT market has the most to lose with 128 GW of clean energy capacity expected to come online in 2028 or later. The report authors acknowledge that this may overstate the amount of capacity at risk in the Texas market because of the speed at which Texas has granted permits in the past.
To generate the figures for the report, Cleanview used its project tracker to quantify how many projects that could lose tax credits are at risk of cancellation given how important the incentives are to project viability. Cleanview looked at how much capacity is expected to come online between 2028 and 2035 across the major RTOs and ISOs because any coming online in 2029 or later would not qualify for tax credits.
Cleanview said revision and/or passage of the Bill represents a pivotal moment for America’s energy future. “With the stroke of a pen, Congress could put an end to the clean energy boom that has transformed the country over the last decade. In doing so, they could put many national priorities, shared by Democrats and Republicans alike, at risk.”
