The order is expected to lead to uneconomical operations of existing coal, leading to higher costs for consumers. About 50 GW of coal that would have otherwise been retired may now operate, said Grid Strategies on a webinar hosted by Roth Capital Partners.
President Donald Trump signed an executive order “Reinvigorating America’s Beautiful Clean Coal Industry” on April 8, 2025.
The order removes federal regulatory barriers to coal production and seeks to identify and remove programs and policies that seek to transition the nation away from coal power.
Coal capacity retirements have been well underway for years, with new renewable energy projects picking up the electricity demand left unserved. The United States hasn’t built any “net new” fossil electricity generation facilities since early 2003. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) expects 25 GW of coal retirements and 15.7 GW of natural gas retirements through January 2028.
However, Phil Shen, managing director, Roth Capital Partners, said his firm is “incrementally more pessimistic” about utility-scale solar based on a recent webinar he hosted with Rob Gramlich, founder and chief executive of Grid Strategies, a power sector consulting firm.
Gramlich warned that “tens of billions” of dollars of solar grid interconnection investments may be adversely affected by coal coming back online in a substantial way following President Trump’ executive order. He said that roughly 50 GW of coal capacity that was planned for retirement may stay online now, pushing out demand for solar.
Grid Strategies said that grid interconnection models assume that retiring coal frees up transmission of solar and wind to come online. Many large-scale solar and wind projects have siting agreements in proximity to planned-to-be-retired coal plants and are relying on the transmission associated with the coal plant. If coal remains in operations, a significant amount of projects could be left “stranded,” said Gramlich.
Coal represented about 10% of the United States electricity generation mix in 2022, but represented 55% of electricity sector carbon emissions and 19% of all carbon emissions economy-wide, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It also produces regional pollutants like sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, mercury and heavy metals, the EIA reports.
In addition to being a dirty power source, coal is expensive to operate. Grid Strategies said that existing coal facilities may already be operating uneconomically 10% to 15% of the time.
Gramlich said the Department of Energy (DOE) may invoke the Federal Power Act’s Section 202(c) to declare a state of emergency, stating coal plants need to stay online to address an energy shortfall. He said DOE could partner with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to ensure the coal plant owner-operators get compensated, which would mean the “uneconomical” operation of coal plants would be passed on to wholesale markets (and ultimately residential and small business electricity bills.)
According to BloombergNEF, coal is more than twice as expensive as solar in terms of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), which measures lifetime costs divided by electricity production. As of the second half of 2024, coal power cost $143 per MWh in LCOE, while utility-scale solar single-axis tracker projects averaged $57 per MWh in LCOE.
In short, Grid Strategies expects the Trump Administration executive order to lead to more health-hazardous pollutant emissions in the United States, while driving costs higher for citizens and small businesses and kneecapping “tens of billions” in renewable energy investment.
